Distributed Bayesian Reasoning is a kind of hypothetical opinion poll. It tells us not what people actually believe, but what they would believe if they knew more.
In this article we develop the basic mathematical formula for calculating the opinion of the meta-reasoner in arguments involving a single main argument thread.
In the Introduction to Distributed Bayesian Reasoning, we argue that the rules of Bayesian inference can enable a form of distributed reasoning. In this article we introduce the idea of meta-reasoner, which is the hypothetical fully-informed average juror. The meta-reasoner resembles the average juror in that it holds prior beliefs equal to the average beliefs of the participants, but it is fully-informed because it holds beliefs for every relevant sub-jury.